Posted: 27/06/2016 at 10:19
Philippa - I am not intending to patronise, just to look above the immediate horizon. The UK is still a member of the EEA which requires members to adopt EU rules for the free movement of persons, goods, services and capital within the EU so, on the face of it, not a lot will change as far as trade and EU immigration are concerned.
Brexit negotiations may change that. Germany will, of course, want to continue trading with the UK but bear in mind that following the VW emissions scandal their UK sales figures are down 20% and US sales figures down 25% so they won't want to encourage competition from the UK car industry. French car manufacturing is suffering from a combination of over capacity and falling sales so they will want to protect their industry.
British car manufacturing has been increasing in recent years but 4 out of 5 cars made in the UK are exported and the biggest market is Europe following recent falls in sales to India and China. If the EU gets sticky on trade terms UK car manufacturing may just end up with falling sales, falling production, job losses and maybe foreign companies like Nissan ceasing to invest in the UK and relocating to mainland Europe - ironic as it is a major employer in an otherwise depressed Sunderland economy.
Investment banks are already moving jobs and operations to Dublin, Frankfurt and Paris. I shall continue to watch economic and political developments with interest.